By Charlie Bilello of COMPOUND
| 10 charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Hello 9% The US Inflation Rate rose to 9.1% in June, its highest level since November 1981. The major difference between 1981 and today continues to be Fed policy. In November 1981, the Fed Funds Rate was over 12%. Today it’s still below 2%, which leaves the Fed far behind the curve.  Powered by YChartsBut that massive gap is expected to narrow considerably in the months to come, with the market now anticipating a 75 bps hike in July (to 2.25%-2.50%), another 75 bps hike in September (to 3.00-3.25%), and 25 bps hikes in November (to 3.25%-3.50%) and December (to 3.50%-3.75%). These aren’t set in stone, of course, and if the inflation rate shows any sign of peaking we could see a slowdown in the pace of hikes. If we look at a breakdown of price increases in the latest CPI report, everything is rising, but Fuel Oil and Gasoline continue to stand out with the largest year-over-year increases…. Read more |